Home News Week 5 NFL 2023 Matchups: Betting Insights

Week 5 NFL 2023 Matchups: Betting Insights

By Manny Wood.
Fact checked by Wilbur Thompson.

Week 5 of the 2023 NFL season is set to kick off in style, with Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears taking on Sam Howell and the Washington Commanders on Thursday night. As we dive into Sunday, there are 12 exciting games on the schedule, including a highly anticipated “Sunday Night Football” showdown between the Dallas Cowboys and the San Francisco 49ers. The week concludes with “Monday Night Football” when Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers visit Allegiant Stadium to face the Las Vegas Raiders.

Stay tuned here for daily updates on betting lines and information, with insights from our top-tier analysts!

Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders

  • Money Line: Chicago Bears (+210) ; Washington Commanders (-260)
  • Total: 44.5; Opened: 0
  • FPI favorite: Commanders by 3.8 (61% to win outright)

Betting Nuggets:

  • All four of the Bears’ games this season have gone over the total.
  • The Bears are 0-3-1 ATS this season.
  • Washington has covered 12 of the last 15 meetings.
  • The Commanders are 0-4 ATS in their past four games as favorites.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills

  • Money Line: Jacksonville Jaguars (+205); Buffalo Bills (-250)
  • Total: 49; Opened: 46.5
  • FPI favorite: Bills by 11.3 (79.5% to win outright)
  • Line Movement Alert: Opened Bills -3.5

Betting Nuggets:

  • Doug Pederson boasts a strong ATS record as an underdog, going 32-23 in his career, including playoffs. He’s 9-6 ATS as an underdog with the Bills.
  • The Bills have covered in three consecutive games.
  • The Jaguars are 5-5 ATS all-time in London games.
  • Overs have hit 5 out of 6 times at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

Houston Texans vs. Atlanta Falcons

  • Money Line: Houston Texans (+110); Atlanta Falcons (-130)
  • Total: 41.5; Opened: 41
  • FPI favorite: Falcons by 0.9 (52.7% to win outright)

Betting Nuggets:

  • The Falcons are 0-3 ATS in their past three games.
  • The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their past five road games.
  • Arthur Smith holds a 4-6 ATS record as a home favorite.

Carolina Panthers vs. Detroit Lions

  • Money Line: Carolina Panthers (+345) ; Detroit Lions (-455)
  • Total: 45; Opened: 43.5
  • FPI favorite: Lions by 10.2 (77.2% to win outright)
  • Line Movement Alert: Opened Lions -7

Betting Nuggets:

  • The Lions boast an impressive 14-5 ATS record at home under Dan Campbell, the best ATS record in that span.
  • Jared Goff holds a 58-43-2 ATS record in his career, with a strong 58-36-2 ATS record since his second season (0-7 ATS as a rookie).
  • Frank Reich is 5-2-1 ATS in his career as an underdog of at least six points.

Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts

  • Money Line: Tennessee Titans (-105) ; Indianapolis Colts (-115)
  • Total: 42.5; Opened: 41.5
  • FPI favorite: Titans by 2 (55.7% to win outright)

Betting Nuggets:

  • The Titans have covered nine straight games in October and are 11-2 ATS in October since 2020.
  • The Colts have struggled as favorites, going 1-6 ATS since the start of last season and 1-8 ATS in their last nine games as favorites.
  • The Colts are 6-14 ATS in division games since 2020.

New York Giants vs. Miami Dolphins

  • Money Line: New York Giants (+430) ; Miami Dolphins (-600)
  • Total: 50; Opened: 49.5
  • FPI favorite: Dolphins by 15.5 (87% to win outright)

Betting Nuggets:

  • Daniel Jones holds an 18-9 ATS record on the road and is 17-6 ATS as a road underdog.
  • Tua Tagovailoa is 8-3 ATS as a home favorite.
  • The Giants are 5-0 ATS in non-conference games under Brian Daboll.
  • The Dolphins have struggled in October, going 1-8-1 ATS since 2021.

New Orleans Saints vs. New England Patriots

  • Money Line: New Orleans Saints (+105) ; New England Patriots (-125)
  • Total: 40; Opened: 39
  • FPI favorite: Patriots by 1.4 (54% to win outright)

Betting Nuggets:

  • All four of the Saints’ games this season have gone under the total.
  • Mac Jones is 12-7-1 ATS as a favorite, including 5-1 ATS in his past six games.
  • Over the last 10 seasons, the Saints are 26-10 ATS in October, while the Patriots are 26-14 ATS, making them the two best records in the NFL during that period.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

  • Money Line: Baltimore Ravens (-195) ; Pittsburgh Steelers (+162)
  • Total: 38; Opened: 38
  • FPI favorite: Ravens by 8 (71.9% to win outright)

Betting Nuggets:

  • The past five meetings between the Ravens and Steelers have gone under the total, with 13 of the last 20 meetings following suit.
  • Lamar Jackson boasts a 20-9-2 ATS record in his career on the road.
  • The Steelers have covered in four straight games following a loss.
  • The Ravens are 9-17 ATS as favorites over the past three seasons.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Los Angeles Rams

  • Money Line: Philadelphia Eagles (-220) ; Los Angeles Rams (+180)
  • Total: 50.5; Opened: 46.5
  • FPI favorite: Eagles by 2.1 (56.1% to win outright)

Betting Nuggets:

  • The Eagles have dominated recent meetings, going 12-2-2 ATS in the last 16 matchups.
  • Jalen Hurts’ games tend to go over, with overs hitting in 10 of his last 14 starts.
  • This marks the 25th consecutive regular-season start where Jalen Hurts is favored. During this streak, he’s posted a 23-2 outright record and a 13-10-2 ATS record.
  • Matthew Stafford has a less favorable 11-20-1 ATS record as a home underdog in his career.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Arizona Cardinals

  • Money Line: Cincinnati Bengals (-165) ; Arizona Cardinals (+140)
  • Total: 44.5; Opened: 42.5
  • FPI favorite: Bengals by 5.1 (64.5% to win outright)

Betting Nuggets:

  • The Bengals have thrived after losses since drafting Joe Burrow in 2020, going 14-7-1 ATS. Burrow himself holds a 12-5-1 ATS record after losses.
  • The Cardinals have excelled as underdogs over the past three seasons, boasting a 16-8 ATS record.
  • Joe Burrow has a 27-18-1 ATS career record but is 0-3-1 ATS this season.

New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos

  • Money Line: New York Jets (+105) ; Denver Broncos (-125)
  • Total: 43.5; Opened: 40
  • FPI favorite: Jets by 1.6 (54.8% to win outright)

Betting Nuggets:

  • The Broncos have covered in 12 of their last 17 games against the Jets.
  • Broncos games have trended toward the over in three consecutive games and in eight of their last nine dating back to last season.
  • The Jets have leaned toward the under in 12 of their past 16 games and seven of their past nine.
  • The Jets have struggled as road underdogs, going 1-4 ATS in their past five such games after starting last season 3-0 outright as road underdogs.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Minnesota Vikings

  • Money Line: Kansas City Chiefs (-225) ; Minnesota Vikings (+185)
  • Total: 53; Opened: 51.5
  • FPI favorite: Chiefs by 6.3 (67.8% to win outright)

Betting Nuggets:

  • The Vikings have struggled as underdogs, going 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games in this role.
  • The Chiefs have had a tough time covering in road games, posting a 2-5 ATS record in their last seven on the road.

Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers

  • Money Line: Dallas Cowboys (+158) ; San Francisco 49ers (-190)
  • Total: 45; Opened: 45
  • FPI favorite: 49ers by 1.8 (55.2% to win outright)

Betting Nuggets:

  • Brock Purdy remains undefeated as a starter, with a 9-0 outright record and a 7-1-1 ATS record.
  • The Cowboys have won and covered in each of the last three meetings.
  • Eight of the last ten meetings between the 49ers and Cowboys have gone over the total.
  • Dak Prescott holds a 15-10-1 ATS record as an underdog in his career.

Green Bay Packers vs. Las Vegas Raiders

  • Money Line: Green Bay Packers (-130) ; Las Vegas Raiders (+110)
  • Total: 44.5; Opened: 0
  • FPI favorite: Packers by 1.7 (54.9% to win outright)

Betting Nuggets:

  • The Raiders have struggled recently, going 0-3 ATS in their last three games.
  • Josh McDaniels has posted a 16-27 ATS record in his last 43 games as a head coach, with a strong start of 6-0 ATS.
  • The Packers have covered in each of the last five meetings.
  • The Raiders have excelled with extra rest under Josh McDaniels, boasting a 4-0 ATS record in such situations.


As you gear up for an action-packed Week 5 in the NFL, keep these betting insights in mind. Good luck with your wagers!